When Israel eliminated IRGC Quds Force commander Muhammad Reza Zahedi in Damascus 1 April, an architect of the al-Aqsa flood, Tehran replied with the typical rhetoric of responding in the manner and time of their choosing. Few could have predicted Tehran breaking their typical response of targeting Jewish and Israeli interests abroad, instead they crossed an unstated red line in the shadow war between the two countries leading to several unforced errors.
Tehran Crosses the Rubicon
Tehran’s military doctrine is quite simple, when facing an adversary with superior firepower the regime has employed war by proxy to avoid a direct confrontation, this has been the regime’s playbook up until 13 April. Launching drones and ballistic missiles from Iranian soil instead of Iraq, Syria, Yemen or Lebanon crossed the Rubicon and invited an Israeli response inside Iran. Very few expected the Islamic Republic to break this threshold, the regime was winning its war by proxy against Israel and the West. Six months had passed since Tehran unleashed Hamas inside Israel with the ensuing horrors, yet with every passing day and over a hundred in Hamas captivity the world court of public opinion was turning against Israel through soft power campaigns in the West. The constant drumbeat of Tehran’s looming attack leaked over the course of two weeks shifted the topic of discussion away from IDF operations in Rafah to the specter of a “widening war” and the implications. In an uncharacteristic move Khamenei appeared to abandon his pragmatic approach with a reactionary response.
Considering the size and scope of the attacks Tehran likely calculated 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles would have inflicted some pain on Israel, instead they severely wounded a 7-year-old Arab Bedouin girl in the Negev. A combination of Israeli, American, British, and Jordanian systems were activated and intercepted 99% of the projectiles with reports that 50% of the Iranian ballistic missiles failed to launch or landed well short of their intended targets. Another unforced error, critically injuring an adolescent Arab girl whilst revealing the reliability and capabilities of Tehran’s arsenal to Israel and the West. However, the Islamic Republic’s greatest weapon and threat to Israel is Hezbollah and the estimated 120,000 precision guided missiles (PGMs) they’re sitting on courtesy of Tehran, but Hezbollah has the most to lose if a full-scale war breaks out between Israel and Lebanon. The regime in Tehran and Hezbollah are attempting to normalize a perpetual high-intensity conflict on the border that has forced Israel to evacuate 80,000 people for six-months which is unsustainable for the Jewish state. Eventually Hezbollah will have to be reckoned with but only after Israel is finished mopping up Hamas and regroups.
Israel’s Knock on the Door
When Israel responded 6-days later it was a clear knock on the door for Tehran and should have left Khamenei extremely concerned. The night of 19 April there were no sirens in Iran nor notice of any activity in the air when loud explosives were reported near Natanz, a dubious nuclear facility hit with effective Israeli sabotage attacks over the last several years. This time Israel did not hit Natanz in response to the regime attacks, but the message was clear, we can hit Natanz if/when we want, and you will never see it coming. Instead, Israel hit and destroyed the advanced anti-aircraft systems set up to protect Natanz from an aerial strike, without notice Israel eliminated the very systems positioned to detect these threats. The day after Israel hit outside Natanz they placed the Islamic Republic back into the war-by-proxy sandbox by flattening an Iraqi proxy base, and unlike American responses to Iranian aggression the IAF removed material and personnel from the battlefield.
Back to Proxy War…For Now
Messages have been sent, both Israel and Tehran probed and by all appearances Israel won this exchange on multiple levels, but the enemy gets a vote, and the regime will calibrate accordingly. Everyone creating panic about WWIII after the events of 1 April, 13 April and April 19 have been proven wrong again, but the world should have received the message an exchange of this nature with a nuclear tipped Tehran is a terrifying prospect that could plunge the world into darkness.
